Modeling risk of failure for individual components in the power system

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Project abstract

A set of vital societal functions such as health and safety are necessary for today's society to function and to secure the life of its individuals. Infrastructure is required to provide and maintain these functions. This for society critical infrastructure includes electronic communication technology, transport systems, oil & gas supply, water supply, and the supply of electric power. The electric power system plays a central role in the critical infrastructure since it is required to operate all others. Therefore, outages in the power system can have severe consequences not solely for the supply of electricity but also for the supply of water, gas, and food. To provide a reliable and safe power supply, power system operators are applying asset management strategies to investigate, plan, maintain, and utilize the system and its components while improving the performance under its own financial constraints.

One approach to increase the reliability of the power grid while decreasing costs is maintenance planning, scheduling, and optimization. To optimize maintenance, a reliability measure for power system components is required. The failure rate, which is the probability of failure in a predefined interval, is utilized in maintenance optimization. Thus far, an average failure rate has been assigned to all components of the same type due to a shortage of component failure data. However, this limits the accuracy of maintenance techniques since the component heterogeneity is neglected. Moreover, the actual failure rate is being underrated or overrated and it is a challenge to identify the impact of conducted maintenance tasks.

This doctoral project presents how the failure rate accuracy can be improved despite limited failure data available. Firstly, an introduction to failure rate modelling theory, concepts, and definitions is given to provide a common understanding for the later chapters and papers. Secondly, regression models are presented which can be used to model, predict, and characterise the failure rate and failure intensity for power system components. The Cox regression and regression models for count data are applied to two case studies of disconnector and circuit breaker failure data. The results contribute to an improved modelling of the failure rate on individual level but also improve the understanding of risk factor's impact on component failures. However, the aforementioned regression models have rarely been applied in the power system domain due to the limited failure data. Thirdly, the necessity to distinguish between population and individual failure rates is illustrated and risk factors and methods are presented, which are frequently used in failure rate modelling. Moreover, the doctoral thesis presents a method to calculate and predict individual failure rates despite the occurrence of actual failures which is of particular advantage for new components.

Summary of work

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Event log

2017. 80% seminar, "Covariate Assessment and Individual Failure Rate Modelling for Power System Equipment", in June.

2017. 24th International Conference on Electricity Distribution - CIRED Glasgow, 12-15 June.

2017. Cigré SC B3 (Substations) Colloquium, 18-20 September 2017, Recife, Brazil

2017. Research exchange at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

2018. Attendance at Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC), Dublin, Ireland, to present "Assessment of Explanatory Variables on the Failure Rate of Circuit Breakers Using the Proportional Hazard Model".

2018. Attendance at IEEE International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS),Boise, US, to present "Modelling of Recurrent Circuit Breaker Failures with Regression Models for Count Data".

2018. PhD thesis Defence on the 19th of October with the thesis titled "Individual Failure Rate Modelling and Exploratory Failure Data Analysis for Power System Components" (see Publications for the full-text).

Project reference-group

Tommie Lindquist,  Svenska kraftnät
Milan Radosavljević ,  Svenska kraftnät
Claes Ahlrot,  E.ON
Susanne Olausson,  Energiforsk AB
Ying He,  Vattenfall AB
Susann Persson,  Jämtkraft AB
Matz Tapper,  Svensk Energi
Johan Öckerman,  Vattenfall
Erik Jenelius,  Trafik och logistik KTH
Fredrik Carlsson,  Vattenfall
Thomas Welte,  Sintef Energi
Robert Saers,  ABB Transformers
Malin Ågren,  Ellevio AB
Anna Lilly Brodersson,  Vattenfall

MSc etc theses connected to the project

2018. Master Thesis, KTH. "Failure rate prediction of low voltage networks using regression models", A. Kolmodin and L. Johansson.

Publications by this researcher

See alternatively the researcher's full DiVA list of publications, with options for sorting.
Publications in journals and conferences usually will not show until a while after they are published.

Estimation of Individual Failure Rates for Power System Components Based on Risk Functions
Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Lars Nordström,   Patrik Hilber.
2019,   IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, vol. 34(4)

Reliability Evaluation of Power Cables Considering the Restoration Characteristic
Hassan Mashad Nemati,   Anita Pinheiro Sant'Anna,   Sławomir Nowaczyk,   Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Patrik Hilber.
2019,   International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, vol. 105

Individual Failure Rate Modelling and Exploratory Failure Data Analysis for Power System Components
Jan Henning Jürgensen.
2018,   Thesis (PhD), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, TRITA-EECS-AVL 2018:67

Estimation of Individual Failure Rates for Power System Components based on Risk Functions
Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Lars Nordström,   Patrik Hilber.

Modelling of Recurrent Circuit Breaker Failures with Regression Models for Count Data
Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Lars Nordström,   Patrik Hilber,   Anna Lilly Brodersson,   Elin Andreasson,   Lalit Goel.
2018,   2018 IEEE International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)

Assessment of Explanatory Variables on the Failure Rate of Circuit Breakers Using the Proportional Hazard Model
Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Lars Nordström,   Patrik Hilber,   Anna Lilly Brodersson,   Elin Andreasson.
2018,   20th Power Systems Computation Conference, PSCC 2018

Impact Assessment of Remote Control and Preventive Maintenance on the Failure Rate of a Disconnector Population
Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Anna Lilly Brodersson,   Lars Nordström,   Patrik Hilber.
2018,   IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, vol. 33(4)

The Proportional Hazard Model and the Modelling of Recurrent Failure Data : Analysis of a Disconnector Population in Sweden
Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Anna Lilly Brodersson,   Patrik Hilber,   Lars Nordström.
2017,   2017 Cigré SC B3 (Substations) Colloquium, 18 - 20 September 2017, Recife, Brazil

Introduction of SiC MOSFETs in Converters based on Si IGBTs : A Reliability and Efficiency Analysis
Diane-Perle Sadik,   Juan Colmenares,   Jan-Henning Jürgensen,   Hans-Peter Nee,   Florian Giezendanner,   Per Ranstad.
2017,   3rd IEEE International Future Energy Electronics Conference and ECCE Asia, IFEEC - ECCE Asia 2017, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, 3 June 2017 through 7 June 2017

Health index as condition estimator for power system equipment : A critical discussion and case study
Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Axel Scheutz Godin,   Patrik Hilber.
2017,   24th International Conference on Electricity Distribution - CIRED Glasgow, 12-15 June 2017

Individual failure rates for transformers within a population based on diagnostic measures
Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Lars Nordström,   Patrik Hilber.
2016,   Electric power systems research, vol. 141

Towards health assessment : Failure analysis and recommendation of condition monitoring techniques for large disconnector populations
Anna Lilly Brodersson,   Patrik Hilber,   Jan Henning Jürgensen.
2016,   CIRED Workshop 2016 Helsinki 14-15 June 2016

Condition-based Failure Rate Modelling for Individual Components in the Power System
Jan Henning Jürgensen.
2016,   Thesis (Licentiate), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, TRITA-EE 2016:079

A Review and Discussion of Failure Rate Heterogeneity in Power System Reliability Assessment
Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Lars Nordström,   Patrik Hilber.
2016,   Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2016 International Conference on, Beijing

A Review and Discussion of Failure Rate Heterogeneity in Power System Reliability Assessment
Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Lars Nordström,   Patrik Hilber.
2016,   Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2016 International Conference on, Beijing

Framework for System Analyses of Smart Grid Solutions with Examples from the Gotland Case
Carl Johan Wallnerström,   Lina Bertling Tjernberg,   Patrik Hilber,   Jan Henning Jürgensen.
2016,   Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2016 International Conference on, Beijing, 16-20 Oct. 2016

Analyses of Smart Grid Technologies and Solutions from a System Perspective
Sajeesh Babu,   Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Carl Johan Wallnerström,   Patrik Hilber,   Lina Bertling Tjernberg.
2015,   IEEE Power and Energy Society ISGT Asia 2015,3-6 Nov. 2015, Bangkok

A Scorecard Approach to Track Reliability Performance of Distribution System Operators
Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Lars Nordström,   Patrik Hilber.
2015,   23rd International Conference on Electricity Distribution - CIRED Lyon, 15-18 June 2015

On the status of reliability studies involving primary and secondary equipment applied to power system
Sajeesh Babu,   Patrik Hilber,   Jan Henning Jürgensen.
2014,   2014 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2014, 7 July 2014 through 10 July 2014, Durham, United Kingdom

Reliability Data : A Review of Importance, Use, and Availability
Niklas Ekstedt,   Carl Johan Wallnerström,   Sajeesh Babu,   Patrik Hilber,   Per Westerlund,   Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Tommie Lindquist.
2014,   NORDAC 2014 (Eleventh Nordic Conference on Electricity Distribution System Management and Development, Stockholm, 8 - 9 September 2014)

Analys av smartaelnätsteknologier inom kategorin elnätslösningar
Carl Johan Wallnerström,   Lina Bertling Tjernberg,   Patrik Hilber,   Sajeesh Babu,   Jan Henning Jürgensen.

Publication list last updated from DiVA on 2024-01-10 15:21.

Page started: 2016-12-01
Last generated: 2024-01-10