Market models for smartgrid implementation swegrids-logo

SweGRIDS research area INSTINCT
SweGRIDS project code IT1
Project type PhD
Status completed
Researcher Claes Sandels   (webpage)
University KTH (EPE)
Project period 2011-12-01 to 2016-04-22   
Project supervisor Lars Nordström   (webpage)
Industrial sponsors Vattenfall


back to project index


Project abstract

The electric power systems are currently being transformed through the integration of intermittent renewable energy resources and new types of electric loads. These developments run the risk of increasing mismatches between electricity supply and demand, and may cause non-favorable utilization rates of some power system components. Using Demand Response (DR) from flexible loads in the building stock is a promising solution to overcome these challenges for electricity market actors. However, as DR is not used at a large scale today, there are validity concerns regarding its cost-benefit and reliability when compared to traditional investment options in the power sector, e.g. network refurbishment. To analyze the potential in DR solutions, bottom-up simulation models which capture consumption processes in buildings is an alternative. These models must be simple enough to allow aggregations of buildings to be instantiated and at the same time intricate enough to include variations in individual behaviors of end-users. This is done so the electricity market actor can analyze how large volumes of flexibility acts in various market and power system operation contexts, but also can appreciate how individual end-users are affected by DR actions in terms of cost and comfort.

The contribution of this thesis is bottom-up simulation models for generating load profiles in detached houses and office buildings. The models connect end-user behavior with the usage of appliances and hot water loads through non-homogenous Markov chains, along with physical modeling of the indoor environment and consumption of heating and cooling loads through lumped capacitance models. The modeling is based on a simplified approach where openly available data and statistics are used, i.e. data that is subject to privacy limitations, such as smart meter measurements are excluded. The models have been validated using real load data from detached houses and office buildings, related models in literature, along with energy-use statistics from national databases. The validation shows that the modeling approach is sound and can provide reasonably accurate load profiles as the error results are in alignment with related models from other research groups.

This thesis is a composite thesis of five papers. Paper 1 presents a bottom-up simulation model to generate load profiles from space heating, hot water and appliances in detached houses. Paper 2 presents a data analytic framework for analyzing electricity-use from heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) loads and appliance loads in an office building. Paper 3 presents a non-homogeneous Markov chain model to simulate representative occupancy profiles in single office rooms. Paper 4 utilizes the results in paper 2 and 3 to describe a bottom-up simulation model that generates load profiles in office buildings including HVAC loads and appliances. Paper 5 uses the model in paper 1 to analyze the technical feasibility of using DR to solve congestion problems in a distribution grid.


Summary of work

2015. In addition to the refinement of the detached house electricity consumer simulation model developed earlier, an office consumer simulation model has be developed and validated. A large dataset from an office building situated in the south of Sweden has been used for this purpose. The model has further been used to assess the feasibility of a demand response ancillary service setup in the Smart Grids Gotland Project.


Event log

2016. Thesis was successfully defended in April 2016. Title: ”Modeling and Simulation of Electricity Consumption Profiles in the Northern European Building Stock”


Project reference-group

Johan Söderbom,  Vattenfall
Per Åslund,  Vattenfall
Sandra Gauers,  Vattenfall


Publications by this researcher

See alternatively the researcher's full DiVA list of publications, with options for sorting.
Publications in journals and conferences usually will not show until a while after they are published.

Modeling and Simulation of Electricity Consumption Profiles in the Northern European Building Stock
Claes Sandels.
2016,   Thesis (PhD), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, TRITA-EE 2016:038

Simulating Occupancy in Office Buildings with Non-Homogeneous Markov Chains for Demand Response Analysis
Claes Sandels,   Joakim Widén,   Lars Nordström.
2015,   The IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, July 26-30, 2015 2015

Assessment of Congestion Management Potential in Distribution Networks using Demand-Response and Battery Energy Storage
Daniel Brodén,   Claes Sandels,   Lars Nordström.
2015,   Innovative Smart Grid Technologies,February 17-20, 2015 Washington D.C., USA

Modeling Office Building Consumer Load with a Combined Physical and Behavioral Approach : Simulation and Validation
Claes Sandels,   Daniel Brodén,   Joakim Widén,   Lars Nordström,   Enar Andersson.
2015,   Applied Energy, vol. 162

Day-Ahead Predictions of Electricity Consumption in a Swedish Office Building from Weather, Occupancy, and Temporal data
Claes Sandels,   Joakim Widén,   Lars Nordström,   Enar Andersson.
2015,   Energy and Buildings, vol. 108

Forecasting household consumer electricity load profiles with a combined physical and behavioral approach
Claes Sandels,   Joakim Widén,   Lars Nordström.
2014,   Applied Energy, vol. 131

Stochastic evaluation of aggregator business models - Optimizing wind power integration in distribution networks
Quentin Lambert,   Claes Sandels,   Lars Nordström.
2014,   2014 Power Systems Computation Conference, PSCC 2014, 18 August 2014 through 22 August 2014

A seasonal ARIMA model with exogenous variables for elspot electricity prices in Sweden
M. Xie,   Claes Sandels,   Kun Zhu,   Lars Nordström.
2013,   10th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2013

Technical analysis of an aggregator's operation for the Gotland power system
Francesco Baccino,   Stefano Massucco,   Claes Sandels,   Lars Nordström.
2013,   22nd International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution, CIRED 2013

Vehicle to grid : System reference architectures and Monte Carlo simulations
Claes Sandels,   Ulrik Franke,   Lars Nordström.
2013,   International Journal of Vehicle Autonomous Systems, vol. 11(2-3)

Household Aggregators development for Demand Response in Europe
Gaspard Lebel,   Claes Sandels,   Sandra Grauers,   Lars Nordström.
2013,   22nd International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution, CIRED 2013

Analysis on the Profitability of Demand Flexibility on the Swedish Peak Power Reserve Market
Claes Sandels,   Mats Hagelberg,   Lars Nordström.
2013,   2013 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference, ISGT 2013

Domestic heat load aggregation strategies for wind following in electric distribution systems
F. Baccino,   S. Massucco,   Claes Sandels,   Lars Nordström.
2013,   2013 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, PES 2013

Modelling Framework and the Quantitative Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources in Future Distribution Networks
Xue Han,   Claes Sandels,   Zhu Kun,   Lars Nordström.
2013,   International Journal of Emerging Electric Power Systems, vol. 14(5)

Empirical analysis for Distributed Energy Resources' impact on future distribution network
Xue Han,   Claes Sandels,   Kun Zhu,   Lars Nordström,   Peter Söderström.
2012,   2012 IEEE International Energy Conference and Exhibition, ENERGYCON 2012

A Local Market Model for Urban Residential Microgrids with Distributed Energy Resources
Aquil Jalia,   Nicholas Honeth,   Claes Sandels,   Lars Nordström.
2012,   2012 45th Hawaii International Conference on System Science (HICSS), 4–7 January 2012, Maui, Hawaii

Trustworthy Injection/Curtailment of DER in Distribution Network Maintaining Quality of Service
Shahid Hussain,   Nicholas Honeth,   Rune Gustavsson,   Claes Sandels,   Arshad Saleem.
2011,   2011 16th International Conference on Intelligent System Applications to Power Systems, ISAP 2011

Vehicle to grid communication : Monte carlo simulations based on automated meter reading reliability
Claes Sandels,   Ulrik Franke,   Lars Nordström.
2011,   17th Power Systems Computation Conference, Stockholm Sweden, August 22-26, 2011

Analyzing fundamental aggregation functions in power systems
Claes Sandels,   Kun Zhu,   Lars Nordström.
2011,   2011 2nd IEEE PES International Conference and Exhibition on Innovative Smart Grid Technologies, ISGT Europe 2011, 5 December 2011 through 7 December 2011, Manchester

Vehicle to grid - Monte Carlo simulations for optimal aggregator strategies
Claes Sandels,   Ulrik Franke,   Nicklas Ingvar,   Lars Nordström,   Robert Hamrén.
2010,   2010 International Conference on Power System Technology: Technological Innovations Making Power Grid Smarter, POWERCON2010. Hangzhou, China 24 October 2010 - 28 October 2010

Vehicle to grid - Reference architectures for the control markets in Sweden and Germany
Claes Sandels,   Ulrik Franke,   Niklas Ingvar,   Lars Nordström,   Robert Hamrén.
2010,   IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT Europe 2010. Gothenburg, Sweden. 11 October 2010 - 13 October 2010

Publication list last updated from DiVA on 2021-09-18 22:01.


back to project index

Page started: 2011-12-01
Last generated: 2021-09-18