Flexible combined heat and power in electricity markets with large amounts of wind power

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Project abstract

A large-scale expansion of wind and solar power will result in larger price volatility in the spot market, increased need for real-time balancing and an increased interest for intra-day trading. In together, these impacts will increase the profitability of power plants that are capable to vary their generation both on an hourly scale and within the hour. Traditionally, the electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) plants has been controlled by the heat demand, but it would be possible to make investments that allow heat and electricity generation to be more separated. To evaluate such investments, it is necessary to understand how CHP plants would be operated in an electricity market with large amounts of wind and solar power. This project aims at developing tools for short-term planning of CHP and using them to evaluate the value of flexibility in such a market environment.

Summary of work

Different methods for day ahead electricity price forecasting, and heat demand forecasting in district heating systems, have been reviewed and two of each have been developed.

Stochastic CHP models have been built for operation scheduling, and optimizing bidding strategy in day ahead electricity markets.

2016. A forecasting model for electricity prices and volumes in the balancing market has been built and tested with data from Nordpool. Work has been published in the European Energy Market conference.

2016. A stochastic DH model for trading in day ahead and balancing electricity markets has been built and tested with data provide by Fortum and Nordpool. A paper has been submitted to Applied Energy.

2016. A deterministic model for the hourly operation of DH systems in power systems with high share of wind power has been built and tested showing the load following capabilities of the DH units. A journal paper has been submitted to Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy.

2016. A stochastic model for construction the offering curves of a CSP producer has been built and tested with data from the Spanish electricity market. Work has been published in the 6th Solar Integration Workshop.

2017. Probabilistic forecasting model for electricity load based on neural networks. Participation in GEFCom2017 competition.

2017. Various models for wind power forecasting. An AR(1) model was used in EEM competition. A multiple regression model for heat load forecasting. An ARX model for intraday electricity prices and volumes forecasting.

2017. Update of the district heating operation model.

2017. Work with Balmorel in Denmark.

Event log

2017. The 14th International Conference of Young Scientists on Energy Issues, Kaunas, Lithuania, May 25-26, 2017

2017. Research Visit to DTU May - June 2017.

Project reference-group

Fabian Levihn,  Fortum Värme AB

Publications by this researcher

See alternatively the researcher's full DiVA list of publications, with options for sorting.
Publications in journals and conferences usually will not show until a while after they are published.

Neural networks for GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting
Ilias Dimoulkas,   Peyman Mazidi,   Lars Herre.
2019,   International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 35(4)

Prediction of Current by Artificial Neural Networks in a Substation in order to Schedule Thermography
Per Westerlund,   Ilias Dimoulkas.
2018,   International conference on Time Series and Forecasting, September 19th-21th, 2018

Optimal Investment Planning of Bulk Energy Storage Systems
Dina Khastieva,   Ilias Dimoulkas,   Mikael Amelin.
2018,   Sustainability, vol. 10(3)

Use of temperature scenariosl medium and long-term probabilistic heat demand forecasting in district heating
Ilias Dimoulkas,   Mikael Amelin.
2018,   Euroheat and Power (English Edition), vol. 15(4)

A hybrid model based on symbolic regression and neural networks for electricity load forecasting
Ilias Dimoulkas,   Lars Herre,   Dina Khastieva,   Elis Nycander,   Mikael Amelin,   P. Mazidi.
2018,   15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018

Monte carlo simulation of district heating system short-term operation in electricity markets
Ilias Dimoulkas,   Mikael Amelin.
2017,   Energetika, vol. 63(3)

District heating system operation in power systems with high share of wind power
Ilias Dimoulkas,   Mikael Amelin,   Fabian Levihn.
2017,   Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, vol. 5(6)

EEM 2017 Forecast Competition : Wind power generation prediction using autoregressive models
Ilias Dimoulkas,   Peyman Mazidi,   Lars Herre.
2017,   14th International Conference on the European Energy Market – EEM 2017,Dresden from 6 - 9 June 2017

Constructing Offering Curves for a CSP Producer in Day-ahead Electricity Markets
Ilias Dimoulkas,   Dina Khastieva,   Mikael Amelin.
2016,   6th Solar Integration Workshop, 14-15 November 2016, Vienna, Austria

Forecasting Balancing Market Prices Using Hidden Markov Models
Ilias Dimoulkas,   Mikael Amelin,   Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh.
2016,   13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), JUN 06-09, 2016, Porto, PORTUGAL

Probabilistic day-ahead CHP operation scheduling
Ilias Dimoulkas,   Mikael Amelin.
2015,   General Meeting of the IEEE-Power-and-Energy-Society, JUL 26-30, 2015, Denver, CO

CHP operation scheduling under uncertainty : Estimating the value of thermal energy storage
Ilias Dimoulkas,   Mikael Amelin.
2014,   14th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling, Stockholm, September 6-10, 2014

Operation Planning of a CSP Plant in the Spanish Day-ahead Electricity Market
Jose Luis Gonzalez,   Ilias Dimoulkas,   Mikael Amelin.
2014,   ¨11th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2014

Constructing Bidding Curves for a CHP Producer in Day-ahead Electricity Markets
Ilias Dimoulkas,   Mikael Amelin.
2014,   2014 IEEE International Energy Conference, ENERGYCON 2014

Tacit Collusion with Imperfect Information : Ex-Ante Detection
Ekaterina Moiseeva,   Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh,   Ilias Dimoulkas.
2014,   IEEE PES General Meeting, JUL 27-31, 2014, National Harbor, MD

Publication list last updated from DiVA on 2024-01-10 15:23.

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